The “NO” vote turned into a “YES” vote last week… I guess that is the biggest news… and boy did that [cough] stabilize things [cough]. Ughhhhmmmm. Sorry. Congress did approve the $700 billion “Bailout Bill” Friday. Ironically it was not exactly $700B… it was closer to $850B. Well, i mean come on… they had to do something to entice the ‘no’ voters to switch… why not more pork. Really… can you tell the difference between $700B and $850B? $150B doesn’t buy what it used to. [Especially now that they have devalued everyone’s money! Yippeeee.]
Oh, you thought they had that in a “lock Box” somewhere? He he he… naw, the just printed more therefore making the dollar in your hip pocket worth less! Oops.
The uncertainty prior to the vote created huge market swings that ultimately sent the Dow to its worst week since 9-11, while causing similar problems in the mortgage world.
Interest rates got worse for the 3rd straight week.
Taking the congressional vote out of the picture, last week’s technical data would have had rates falling… not going up. Uncertainty is the economic Anti-Christ. Is that too strong? LOL
For example, the nat’l economy lost another 159,000 jobs. This brings the 2008 total to 760,000 lost jobs. This reduces the likelihood of inflation and is normally good for mortgage rates. [When it comes to mortgage rates, inflation is like the 800# gorilla boogie man.] In addition, the dollar had its strongest week ever against the Euro… oh… you didn’t hear that on the news…. huh! Whoduthunkit. These economic events usually attract borrowers to the mortgage market, therefore lowering rates.
Lower rates = Home lovin’ goodness.
Additionally Fannie Mae eliminated one of its mandatory loan fee hikes. This improves mortgage backed-security pricing for buyers, again leading to lower rates.
But, mortgage rates rose didn’t fall last week and that shows how deep the economic uncertainty really ran. [Remember… uncertainty…. booooooo.] And this week, with the bill now passed into law, we would expect the market to turn its attention back to fundamentals. Butttttttt, it can’t.
Unfortunately, there’s isn’t much new economic data for release this week so it is likely the markets will take their cues from the following:
- The 8 scheduled Fed speakers, including Bernanke on Tuesday
- Wednesday’s Pending Home Sales report
- Rumors of a “surprise” Fed Funds Rate cut [you heard it here first…]
Regardless of to what markets react, though, be prepared for them to react swiftly and for mortgage rates to dip and spike — often in the same day. Is this the “New World” of mortgage financing? For the foreseeable future…yup.
In other words, a mortgage rate quote from the morning is likely to be “expired” by the afternoon so if you see a rate and payment that you like, consider locking it. It likely won’t last long.