The Bailout – Interest Rates – what’s the connection…

Well, while you and I were kicking back over the weekend, Congress was hard at work. [Wow, when have I ever said that before…LOL.] They drafted their ‘bill’ Sunday evening and within the 110 pages of Congressional Brilliance [again, work with me here….], an important clause emerged that should be positive for interest rates for the time being…

In summary, page 40 has the points of interest:

The U.S. Treasury gets past of it [$250 billion] up-front

The next $100 billion must get executive branch approval

he next $350 billion must get legislative branch approval

In other words, the U.S. Treasury checkbook is not “wide-open” and they must get the go-ahead from these other checks and balances… this is a good thing. By limiting the Treasury’s spending to $250 billion up-front, with the $450 billion balance being subject to third-party approval, inflation concerns from last week should settle a bit. This feeling within the markets should, in general, have downward pressure on mortgage rates.

That is not to say that all other economic data is usurped though. This week, there are a few things things that could influence rates all on their own.

Today, Monday, September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures data comes out. Ewwww, doesn’t that sound fancy! Well, it basically is a cost-of-living measurement with a fancy name. It is one of the FEDs favorite measurements though, because it allows for human behavior modification in response to market prices.

For example, if orange groves got wiped out and OJ was $10 for a gallon, uuuhhh…. most people are switching to a new fruit juice and not going to pay that premium. PCE allows for those behavioral changes in its numbers.

Ah, PCE numbers just came out as I am putting finishing touches on the blog here… they came in just as expected .2% for August.

The Unemployment Rate touched 6.1 percent in August 2008. In addition, on Friday, the jobs report is released so we should see that number change slightly. Expectations are that it will increase [for the 9th straight month].

Rates – up or down? Yes, it will be up or down… sorry, poor humor i know, but i gotta tell you with all the volatility, it is really hard to predict. Therefore, if you see a mortgage rate with a comfortable accompanying payment, consider locking it in.

With as fast as markets have moved this year, you can be pretty sure the rate — whatever it is — won’t last for long.

Oh, one last thing, Citigroup just bought Wachovia’s banking assets. This is sure to be another fun week!

Chris – out

Read Previous Left-overs:

Mortgage Chili: Last week’s leftovers and what’s to come…

Mortgage Chili: Last week’s leftovers and what’s to come…

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The U.S. Treasury is the biggest reason why most conforming mortgage rates increased by a half-percent.

Hank Paulson’s [Secretary of the Treasury] government group helped to restore investor confidence that had steadily eroded from concern to fear since July 2007, before succumbing to outright panic last week.

Wall Street nerves were so frayed that at one point Wednesday, yields on government bonds were actually in the negative; investors were paying the U.S. government to hold and protect their money in exchange for a guaranteed loss of investment.  No Joke!

After the Treasury’s interventions, however, a sense of normalcy returned to Wall Street…  money poured back into stocks… siphoned from the bond market and that pushed rates higher…. again.

This week, OMG, it’s anybody’s guess what will happen. 

From a data perspective, it’s light — there’s Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, and not much else.  From a policy perspective, however, the week is heavy: 

• Congress is expected to authorize “hundreds of billions” for market support… $700 B is the discussion.
• Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson will testify before the Senate Banking Committee
• 7 members of the Fed are making public appearances

With so much rhetoric, it’s difficult to predict how mortgage rates will perform this week.  The stock market may be the best predictor of rates.

If stocks are up, risk-taking is back in vogue and the bond market should suffer, pushing mortgage rates higher.  By contrast, if traders stay clear of stocks in search of safer investments, mortgage rates should fall.

(Image courtesy: Wall Street Journal)