Weeeeeee……
Not only is that what the snail said as he hitched a ride on the back of a turtle, [laugh, that is as funny as it gets] but it is what most of us are saying about these market dips and jumps! It’s important to remember that markets are unpredictable and nobody knows what will happen tomorrow.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t stop the ‘experts’ from trying.
An obvious example comes from back in May. As oil crossed the $120 per barrel mark [eventually arriving at $147…ouch…] a Goldman Sachs ‘expert’ was quoted as saying that $200 oil was “likely”.
Well, at that time it seemed logical, did it not?
A mere 5 months later, that seems downright laughable. Oil is off by more than 40% since that day. “Well, that is a unique case, Chris.” Huh… wanna bet? There are hundreds of examples just like this one.
Every day, economic experts and analysts are on television, pontificating to us about what’s going to happen:
- They tell us when housing prices will bottom out
- They tell us when stock markets will rebound for good
- They tell us what the economy will do over the next 12 months
But none of them operate with the proverbial crystal ball — it’s all on “gut”. But, I guess I cut them a little slack… I mean, after all, in a world of 24-hour news… they gotta have someone say something new don’t they. Oh, the monster we have created! ROFL
Want another example you say? [Herb, they want another example…] How about today’s CNNMoney.com. In the after math of the govt’s financial ‘response’, a mortgage analyst predicts 7% interest rates over the next 6 months. This would represent a 1.5% increase from recent lows. I guess it is possible, but not ‘likely’ [Oops, i just did it, geez.] Orlando FHA loans have been low too.
Anyway, the rate prediction may be accurate, but it may not. When will we know? In, say, about 6 months i reckon!
But what we know today, though, is that Orlando mortgage rates are all over the place — just like the stock market. One day up, another day down. And nobody knows what they’ll do tomorrow.
Predicting the future has always been an inexact science… maybe art would be a better word… but that won’t stop the ‘experts’ from trying. And the experts are wrong as often as anybody else.
That all being said, my ‘expert’ opinion [don’t worry… the irony is not lost on me] is to not let market conditions trump your personal conditions. Logically, we ALL should be buying Orlando real estate right now… buy low – sell high, right? But the truth is, our personal finances are a very emotional issue… not a logical one. To think otherwise would be foolhardy. If the time is right to buy a house for you… buy one and feel fortunate that the housing gods* are in alignment with you. If it is not the right time for you, don’t do something foolish just because the deals are everywhere!
Just my .02 =0)
Chris
*for the record, I am a Christian and do not believe in said ‘housing gods’… but rather one sovereign God. This statement is made for the entertainment value to the reader. Do not sue me.