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Posts Tagged ‘Flight to Quality’

Orlando Mortgage Rates and BLOOD shooting from your eyes…

Posted by Chris Brown on October 8, 2008

On October 6, 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below the psychologically-important 10,000 level for the first time since 2004, sending mortgage rates lower

On Monday, the Dow Jones closed below the mental barrier of 10,000 points for the first time since 2004.

Bad news… well it depends… doesn’t everything these days!? Despite the milestone of ‘doom and gloom’ there is a large group of the American public with reason to “stand up and cheer” [You gotta say that like that Las Vegas boxing announcer guy. Trust me, say it out loud and it will make you laugh.] Anyway, as stocks sold off, mortgage bonds rallied to the benefit of Orlando home buyers and mortgage rates shoppers everywhere. Remember, we talked about this being called the ‘flight to quality’? Anyone? Buehler?

Conforming mortgages rates improved on Monday. No wait, no they didn’t, wait… yeah… that’s right they did. [Isn’t this fun?] here is why you don’t need to read the rest of this… if this kind of thing makes blood shoot from your eyes… just make sure you have someone [call them…say…uh… a freak] in your corner that actually eats this stuff for breakfast. Did I mention I love writing blogs about blood shooting from people’s eyes?

Most interesting here is that rates improved for the same reason that the stocks fell. That was the LARGE SUCKING SOUND you heard. See, the worlds’ economies, yeah… they got people worried. It seems that investors have lost their collective appetite for risk for the time being. In response, they sold their stock positions and parked the proceeds in the “safe haven” of U.S. government-backed debt. [Read again – flight to quality]

A vault may be the only safer place to park money than U.S. government-backed debt.Now, we can’t predict when the market’s risk appetite will return any better than predicting any insatiable carnivorous activity, but when it does, expect money to flow into stocks just as quickly as it left… ANOTHER LARGE SUCKING SOUND.

All year long, with respect to stock markets, it’s been either “everybody in” or “everybody out” and, for now, it’s everybody out. This is why mortgage rates fell Monday.

As evidenced by Tuesday’s reversal to worsening for Orlando mortgage rate shoppers, it is imperative the Orlando home searchers have their finger on the trigger so they can get the best mortgage rate and get the rate lock in place. [Was that good English?] In other words, be ready to lock that mortgage rate because as soon as the stock market reverses course, mortgage rates will head higher.

And if stocks recover as quickly as they tanked, expect mortgage rates to spike badly.

(Image courtesy: USA Today)

Posted in Borrowers, Economic News, FHA Loans, Home Buyers, Home Owners, Mortgage Advice, Rate Shoppers, Refinancing | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Mortgage Market, Stock Market, Unstable… Oh my!

Posted by Chris Brown on October 2, 2008

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After the House of Representatives defeated the ‘Emergency Economic Stabilization Bill of 2008’ affectionately known as the$700B Bailout… the stock market fell more in any single day in history.  [You probably have already recognized that the stock market does not favor uncertainty. =0)

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average spikes and dips, mortgage rates are spiking and dipping, tooThe Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 777.68 points, its largest one-day point loss ever.

Apparently, I am not the only one that remains bullish on America as a whole though, because only 24 hours later… we had the third largest GAIN ever.  I feel like the kid that gets a free pass to stay on the roller coaster over and over and over… only i am starting to feel like I may hurl if I don’t get off soon.  That Chili Blog…uh Dog… and the funnel cake isn’t resting well anymore! LOL

Does this mean, at the end of the day, the experts really don’t know that much  more than you and me?  Makes one think, does it not?

The stock market activity is highly relevant to mortgage rates right now because when investors flee the stock market, they’re often parking their money in bonds.

In general, that causes mortgage rates to fall.

But, as in many things, when folks regain their appetite for funnel cake [read: stocks], as they did Tuesday, they move back into the market, “un-parking” their bond money. This causes mortgage rates to rise… we have talked about this before referring to it as the “Flight to Quality”.

Both Monday’s and Tuesday’s drastic swings points to the speed at which market conditions can change, taking mortgage rates with them. At the end of the day, what does this mean for you… if you find a rate for a home purchase that you like, you may be best served by locking it in.  If  not you may find your hovering over the garbage can near the tilt-a-whirl. =0)

We can’t predict if rates will fall or rise going as we move into the future, but if the stock market is any sort of a clue lately, in whichever direction rates go, they’re going to go there like an amusement park roller-coaster.  [Personally, if I had to choose, I like the Hulk at Universal.]

Posted in Borrowers, Economic News, Home Buyers, Mortgage Advice, Rate Shoppers, Refinancing | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »