1 lb- ground beef
1 tsp- salt
1/4 tsp- pepper
1 tsp- cumin powder
1 tsp- garlic powder
2 tbls- Worcestershire sauce
3 tbls- chili powder
1 tbls- minced onion
2 cups- red wine
2- 28 oz can diced tomato
2- 6 oz can tomato paste
1- 8 oz can undrained mushrooms
2- 15 oz can undrained black beans
Okay, so the subject line is long – but, believe it or not I cut it short. It could have been, “First Time Home Buyers can couple $7500 Tax Credit and Low Interest Rates and high inventories to buy Longwood Real Estate” We are seeing an unbelievable ‘perfect storm’ for buyers! Beware though – when it comes to mortgage rates, sometimes it’s better to “act now”… and no, that isn’t just salesmanship – its the difference between a rate in the 4% range and the 5% range.
Last Tuesday, mortgage rates plummeted to their lowest levels in four years. Now, I love when mortgage hacks are right for the wrong reasons – don’t you? Many have pontificated that it was because…
Lake Mary First Time Home Buyers… perk up. We all know what inflation is and the ugliness that can go with it. Most of us know that deflation is the opposite of inflation…. but don;t know much more than that.
In fact, business TV and newspapers have inflated deflation [sorry for the play on words… but I like doin’ that] as a hot topic this week and, since Monday, Google has tracked 13,000 mentions of it. Make this 13001.
Deflation is a recurring cycle in which the prices of goods and services fall. Suh-weet… falling prices that is so cool, right? Well, um, not really. Why? Human nature.
When prices are declining across manyindustries at the same time, IT CAN SHUT DOWN THE ECONOMY!
If you think about it…
Find out the ugly truth of deflation by finishing the blog post here:
If the presence of inflation causes mortgage rates to rise, then the absence of inflation should cause mortgage rates to fall. And, in most markets that’s true.
Today, it’s not.
Despite a deep, month-over-month dip in consumer prices not seen since 1947, Altamonte Springs mortgage rates not steady by any stretch of the imagination… they are still as volatile as ever!
The main reason why rates are fluctuating so, is that the Cost of Living didn’t just ease last month — it plunged.
It is important for Florida Home buyers to know that Florida FHA loan limits are going down for 2009. For 2008 Seminole County loan limits, it is a HUGE drop. The new loan limits per county are as follows:
How come everything in Orlando gets cheaper when everyone is worried about their job and don’t want to spend any money!!
Okay, so it is a rhetorical question and the answer is somewhat obvious, but how cool would that be if, everything got cheaper and you just got a raise!?
I feel your pain.
Well, on the first Friday of every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the ‘jobs report’… officially called the ‘Non-Farm Payrolls report.’ Well, the October’s data is trending with the rest of 2008. See the pretty graph? Don’t let the green fool you.
After dropping another 240,000 jobs last month like a newbie at a craps table, the economy…
By Michael Dale – Vice President, Dave Brewer Realty, Inc.
Wow, given the recent dramatic economic events where do I begin; the stock market, the mortgage market, the secondary mortgage market as represented by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
Each of the aforementioned have so overwhelmingly impacted our economy let alone our housing market. Many I have conversed with this past week are angry and frustrated. These institutions are so mammoth and to most of us represent entities that we can’t touch let alone think of impacting or affecting change upon. And then when you add the additional frustration…
Read the whole blog post and see the TELLING historic chart here:
NEWS FLASH: THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA is not your friend. Okay, maybe the subject of this Orlando Mortgage Blog Post is a little extreme, but it does prove my point. Sensational sells. Unfortunately, truth doesn’t always carry the same punch if it is not. Despite turmoil on Wall Street, despite the drum beat of doom from the media…the real estate sector continues to deliver good news.
Last month, led by a 22% surge from the West Region, new home sales went UP by 2.7% from August’s numbers. Okay, so the “West region” isn’t exactly Orlando Real Estate news, but the trend is important. Waiting for the bottom? You just might miss it if you don’t perk up and get pre-qualified now.
[A “new home” is a newly-built residence, i.e. a brand-new house.]
The surge in New Home Sales volume is aligned with the other good news we’ve seen from in the real estate market.
Lets count down the good news for real estate that you HAVEN’T HEARD in the last two weeks….
The TOP 4 countdown:
#4 …
Read the Top 4 ‘good news’ stats and more in my blog post:
Mortgage markets bucked the curve last week and decided to be, well, volatile! At least there was a change, huh? Good Grief. After opening with a solid performance that drove rates down, mid and late-week fears of a global recession reversed that path as Mortgage-backed securities broke back below the 200 day moving average…that is bad for rates. This was an unexpected outcome for the week considering that:
The dollar advanced 5 percent, making bonds “worth more”
Oil dropped by 11%, helping to spur consumer spending
LIBOR dipped a bit, signaling a credit ‘thawing’ [does that even make sense?]
Each of the above factors would typically help generate new demand for mortgage bonds, pressuring mortgage rates lower. But, Ta-daaaa…
Not only is that what the snail said as he hitched a ride on the back of a turtle, [laugh, that is as funny as it gets] but it is what most of us are saying about these market dips and jumps! It’s important to remember that markets are unpredictable and nobody knows what will happen tomorrow.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t stop the ‘experts’ from trying.
An obvious example comes from back in May. As oil crossed the $120 per barrel mark [eventually arriving at $147…ouch…] a Goldman Sachs ‘expert’ was quoted as saying that $200 oil was “likely”.
Well, at that time it seemed logical, did it not?
A mere 5 months later, that seems downright laughable. Oil is off by more than 40% since that day. “Well, that is a unique case, Chris.” Huh… wanna bet? There are hundreds of examples just like this one.
Every day, economic experts and analysts are on television, pontificating to us about what’s going to happen:
They tell us when housing prices will bottom out
They tell us when stock markets will rebound for good
They tell us what the economy will do over the next 12 months
But none of them operate with the proverbial crystal ball — it’s all on “gut”. But, I guess I cut them a little slack… I mean, after all, in a world of 24-hour news… they gotta have someone say something new don’t they. Oh, the monster we have created! ROFL
Want another example you say? [Herb, they want another example…] How about today’s CNNMoney.com. In the after math of the govt’s financial ‘response’, a mortgage analyst predicts 7% interest rates over the next 6 months. This would represent a 1.5% increase from recent lows. I guess it is possible, but not ‘likely’ [Oops, i just did it, geez.] Orlando FHA loans have been low too.
Anyway, the rate prediction may be accurate, but it may not. When will we know? In, say, about 6 months i reckon!
But what we know today, though, is that Orlando mortgage rates are all over the place — just like the stock market. One day up, another day down. And nobody knows what they’ll do tomorrow.
Predicting the future has always been an inexact science… maybe art would be a better word… but that won’t stop the ‘experts’ from trying. And the experts are wrong as often as anybody else.
That all being said, my ‘expert’ opinion [don’t worry… the irony is not lost on me] is to not let market conditions trump your personal conditions. Logically, we ALL should be buying Orlando real estate right now… buy low – sell high, right? But the truth is, our personal finances are a very emotional issue… not a logical one. To think otherwise would be foolhardy. If the time is right to buy a house for you… buy one and feel fortunate that the housing gods* are in alignment with you. If it is not the right time for you, don’t do something foolish just because the deals are everywhere!
Just my .02 =0)
Chris
*for the record, I am a Christian and do not believe in said ‘housing gods’… but rather one sovereign God. This statement is made for the entertainment value to the reader. Do not sue me.
Ugh… for current home owners with soon-to-adjust adjustable rate mortgages [ARM], the recent financial market upheaval worldwide may lead to a personal catch-22.
This is mainly because most conforming ARMs made after 2003 are based on an index called “LIBOR” [London Interbank Offered Rate… this is the rate that banks charge one another] and LIBOR is up an uncharacteristic 2 percent since September. Ooof.
Historically, LIBOR has tracked the U.S. treasury market, plus about 1/2-percent. This suggests that banks are only slightly less likely to default versus the U.S. government. That communicated that banks, at thte time were only fractionally less likely to default than the US Govt.
Well guess what?
Banks aren’t that confident in one another anymore. Oops. Now you have seen a diverging trend between the two indices. Wow, that makes me feel smart! [Breathe Chris, breathe….]
Today, that spread is around 4.500%.
The LIBOR spike is hurting homeowners with ARMs because adjusted rates on conforming mortgages are often calculated by adding a margin of between 2.250% and 2.750% to the current 12-mo. LIBOR rate.
The big group at risk? You guessed it…sub-prime mortgages, their margins are even more steeperer. [There’s my awesome grammar again! Smart felling from before… it’s gone now.]
In general, ARMs are not bad in and of themselves, so be weary of News anchors that try to pass off they know what they are talking about… they are just reading this 10 minutes before their broadcast and know likely less than you do if you have a good mortgage professional.
Your mortgage professional, the good ones at least, likely explained that ARMs are typically lower rates because you are taking some of the risk yourself. Unfortunately, current market conditions are worse than could have been imagined 3-5 years ago. If you still have 18 months or more on your ARM, you are in a better position than those with less than that, but to be sure, if you have any questions, call or email your loan officer, or a CMPS like me, to talk about how LIBOR may impact your adjusted mortgage rate and payment.
For many of us… I personally have an ARM as well, it’s less expensive to refinance into a new home loan that to just let the adjustment happen… especially if you can qualify for an FHA loan.
Orlando Short Refinances are a relatively new phenomenon and all the chips haven’t fallen yet as to how these are going to shake out… that being said, they may be an alternative to the ugly process of a short sale. [Which is anything BUT short!] It is important that you know that I am staying on the cutting edge along with a couple other high-profile loan officers from around the country. To get in on the front end of the wave, Apply for a FHA Short Refinance here.
BUY BUY BUY!!! Doooh… did you miss it? Throughout the feverish activity on Wall Street last week, mortgage backed securities sold off with vengeance, driving mortgage rates to their highest levels since July. It was the 4th consecutive week in which long-term rates got more badder. [Grammar police – I know that is not correct, breathe.]
But, with the mortgage markets taking a siestacelebrating Columbus Day on Monday, stocks had a little fiesta with the largest point gain LIKE….EVER! In fact the only reason it is #5 on the chart here is because the other days were back in the 30’s where a, no joke, 8 point gain was a 15% increase! Woooaahhhhh.
The Dow’s gains are expected to push mortgage rates down today, but as of right now, that is not the case. Mortgage Backed Securities are up about +28bps but it is quite likely that they will reverse before days end.
Expect continued volatility until investor fears are somewhat squelched. For now, keep those seltbelts fastened and all extremities in the vehicle at all times.
This week, look for key inflation info including the Producer Price Index [PPI] on Wed and the Consumer Price Index [CPI] on Thurs.
Both measure the “cost of living” and reflect on price pressures in the economy. If costs are rising, it’s considered inflationary and that tends to edge mortgage rates higher. [Again… the economic anti-Christ, remember?]
Okay, [my signature beginning for the return readers] given the stock market’s recent plummet, it is not at all surprising that oil’s free-fall has got very little attention. That doesn’t make it any less relevant though.
Since peaking at like $146 per barrel, oil prices are off by a HUGE amount. Friday, it was at $77.70. [Note the graph is GAS prices, not oil.] For those, like me, that went to public school… that is almost HALF.
Falling gas prices are an important positive for the U.S. economy [have you heard that recently from the media?] because less money spent on Exxon’s elixir means that more money is saved per household for everyday items including food and other staples. Don’t forget the cost of energy affects almost every level of the things we need and buy.
Did you know that consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy.
Therefore, falling gas prices may reduce the odds of a forecasted recession. Because Americans are notoriously poor savers, hellooooooo…negative savings rate????…. the extra cash-on-hand is likely to get spent which, in turn, will push the economy forward through the upcoming holiday shopping season. Yeah, it is close… time flies huh?
So, just asinflation [if you remember from a previous post] can bad for Orlando mortgage rates, so can an impending recession… duuhhhhhh. And while recession won’t always cause mortgage rates to rise, right now, it’s one of the factors driving rates higher in this “new world”. Falling gas prices may help keep that scenario ain check.
Written by Chris Brown, an Orlando Loan Officer. For more information about purchase loans or refinances on primary residences or investment properties, please contact me directly @ 407-377-0500 x 210.
Sooooo, [I thought i would start with something other than ‘okay…’ LOL] The FED made an “emergency rate cut” yesterday, dropping the Fed Funds Rate by one half-percent to 1.500%. What you care about, is the PRIME rate dropped to 4.500%… this is what HELOCs and credit card rates are based on… yeah I know… good news, right? I mean, the move is meant to stimulate the U.S. economy… isn’t it?
When the Federal Reserve changes the Fed Funds Rate, it often takes 9 months for the changes to work their way through the economy so this is not an immediate realization of change, but apparently the FED felt it had to do it and do it quick. Emergency meetings are relatively rare.
On a broad scale, therefore, we won’t know if the cut truly “worked” until thew summer of next year.
But, as it relates to ‘we the people’ in general, the rate cut spurred two instantaneous changes.
Credit cards and HELOCs will be more affordable as I stated before,
but the second change is that mortgage rates are rising.
The Fed’s moves have sparked optimism in some corners of Wall St. and money is now flowing into the stock market at the expense of bonds… or is it the other way around. My gosh, my head is spinning… and I watch this intently every day. You better sit down.
As always, mortgage markets and mortgage rates remain in turmoil. Therefore, rates are subject to change… uh… a lot… anddddd frequently. Did I mention frequently? If you see a rate and payment you like, be ready to commit to it because it likely won’t last long. Have the nerve to PULL THE TRIGGER!
On Monday, the Dow Jones closed below the mental barrier of 10,000 points for the first time since 2004.
Bad news… well it depends… doesn’t everything these days!? Despite the milestone of ‘doom and gloom’ there is a large group of the American public with reason to “stand up and cheer” [You gotta say that like that Las Vegas boxing announcer guy. Trust me, say it out loud and it will make you laugh.] Anyway, as stocks sold off, mortgage bonds rallied to the benefit of Orlando home buyers and mortgage rates shoppers everywhere. Remember, we talked about this being called the ‘flight to quality’? Anyone? Buehler?
Conforming mortgages rates improved on Monday. No wait, no they didn’t, wait… yeah… that’s right they did. [Isn’t this fun?] here is why you don’t need to read the rest of this… if this kind of thing makes blood shoot from your eyes… just make sure you have someone [call them…say…uh… a freak] in your corner that actually eats this stuff for breakfast. Did I mention I love writing blogs about blood shooting from people’s eyes?
Most interesting here is that rates improved for the same reason that the stocks fell. That was the LARGE SUCKING SOUND you heard. See, the worlds’ economies, yeah… they got people worried. It seems that investors have lost their collective appetite for risk for the time being. In response, they sold their stock positions and parked the proceeds in the “safe haven” of U.S. government-backed debt. [Read again – flight to quality]
Now, we can’t predict when the market’s risk appetite will return any better than predicting any insatiable carnivorous activity, but when it does, expect money to flow into stocks just as quickly as it left… ANOTHER LARGE SUCKING SOUND.
All year long, with respect to stock markets, it’s been either “everybody in” or “everybody out” and, for now, it’s everybody out. This is why mortgage rates fell Monday.
As evidenced by Tuesday’s reversal to worsening for Orlando mortgage rate shoppers, it is imperative the Orlando home searchers have their finger on the trigger so they can get the best mortgage rate and get the rate lock in place. [Was that good English?] In other words, be ready to lock that mortgage rate because as soon as the stock market reverses course, mortgage rates will head higher.
And if stocks recover as quickly as they tanked, expect mortgage rates to spike badly.
Lake Mary First Time Home Buyers… perk up. We all know what inflation is and the ugliness that can go with it. Most of us know that deflation is the opposite of inflation…. but don;t know much more than that.
If the presence of inflation causes mortgage rates to rise, then the absence of inflation should cause mortgage rates to fall. And, in most markets that’s true.
How come everything in 
By Michael Dale – Vice President, Dave Brewer Realty, Inc.
Okay… I am going to say the “N” word… when the government Nationalized the mortgage biz in September, housing analysts predicted lower mortgage rates.
sells. Unfortunately, truth doesn’t always carry the same punch if it is not. Despite turmoil on Wall Street, despite the drum beat of doom from the media…the real estate sector continues to deliver good news.
Weeeeeee……
BUY BUY BUY!!! Doooh… did you miss it? Throughout the feverish activity on Wall Street last week, mortgage backed securities sold off with vengeance, driving mortgage rates to their highest levels since July. It was the 4th consecutive week in which long-term rates got more badder. [Grammar police – I know that is not correct, breathe.]
Since peaking at like $146 per barrel, oil prices are off 
Now, we can’t predict when the market’s risk appetite will return any better than predicting any insatiable carnivorous activity, but when it does, expect money to flow into stocks just as quickly as it left… ANOTHER LARGE SUCKING SOUND.
Orlando Real Estate and the Mortgage Chili Blog 